Really That's the magic solution. This statement is so disingenuous don't know where to begin...
Production of all P4P discontinued is there a P5 coming?
- Thread starter John Gowland
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Really That's the magic solution. This statement is so disingenuous don't know where to begin...
YAWN.....
LOL, you may well be right. Like all of us I'm getting tired of the lack of hard facts and playing "join the dots". As I said, I don't know the guy or his company. I'd LIKE to think he has some inside contact with actual knowledge but ... maybe not either.
Mind you I don't have any more confidence in statements from retailers, especially when they make points like "Twice as many sensors" .. I think it's 2 more upwards isn't it? (I own both you'd think I could remember wouldn't you? Don't get old!) and I loved the "Camera has equal sharpness" Oh really captain camera? (let's not even go there) No sales agenda of you own to push whatsoever right?
The facts are that I'm pretty chummy with the owner of the local DJI dealer and (more importantly) authorised service agent. I've seen with my own eyes the correspondence confirming EOL for the Mavic Pro and all of the Phantom 4 line ...except the P4P v 2.0 which is still listed as "unavailable due to supply issues".
Bottom line I guess is until I see documentation from DJI themselves or a replacement model appearing on the shelves and in reviews I'm just going to keep my old arse parked up here on the fence.
Regards
Ari
So, if I’ve got this right, basically, the only Phantom that DJI will continue to sell as soon as they resolve “supply issues” is the P4P v2?
I’ll join the voices of skepticism that a product sourced from China would have a supply line issue take this long. There is nothing inside a P4 so special that any of a large number of other companies could not have produced by now. I consider this most suspicious.
In the realm of conspiracy theories: I’m trying to think of “something” that could have happened that prevents DJI from continuing to produce this product for fear of “some” serious repercussion. I’m just not sure yet what.
I’ll join the voices of skepticism that a product sourced from China would have a supply line issue take this long. There is nothing inside a P4 so special that any of a large number of other companies could not have produced by now. I consider this most suspicious.
In the realm of conspiracy theories: I’m trying to think of “something” that could have happened that prevents DJI from continuing to produce this product for fear of “some” serious repercussion. I’m just not sure yet what.
Hi Drestin
Well, this is what I have been believing up to now, although with all the other rumour mills in full swing you can start to wonder.
If it was a simple as it appears on the surface I would agree, the two things I see that muddy the waters are
1. DJI like anyone else will have contractual obligations with their suppliers, if they cannot source parts due to the supplier then they could probably break the contract and get parts made elsewhere but what if the problem is not with the manufacturers producing the parts but rather DJI procuring of them? which brings me to
2. As you are probably aware DJI are in the beginnings of a huge scandal and fraud case involving (so they say ) primarily the parts procurement division .. They have stood down 30+ employees at this time and 19 have been charged, from the sounds of things this includes the upper echelon of their parts procurement people. The current losses are said to be $150Million and they claim it's only the tip of the ice burg ... The V2.0 was only on sale here for 2 months, longer in the U.S. of course because we get everything a little delayed, before it was unavailable on the DJI web store (although it has never gone out of stock here in retailers inventory). If they were going to pull the plug so soon why even bother releasing an upgrade? The V.2 only got sinusoidal ESCs, and revised props giving about an extra 2 minutes battery. The V1.0 is virtually as good in most respects. Same camera which is it's shining point.
IF they were going to drop it in the short term surely they'd just plug on with the original until parts ran out. It is not totally outside the realm of possibility that they do not have parts in sufficient numbers because of their own procurment issues which would stop them going elsewhere for parts. .... just speculating of course, but logical speculation ...
Ok, on top of the above we have the gentleman from Smokey Mountain Aerial that I linked to earlier who claims to have insider knowledge claiming that the is not going to be a P5 at this stage and instead DJI have pulled all their P4P v2.0 stock to retrofit as the soon to be released P4E ... I have my doubts but weirder things have been true
There's no denying, the P4P has been around 2+ years now, perhaps it might make sense that it is nearing end of life ... but then why release an update at all? Sales of the Mavic 2 are booming but as a commercial pilot I can tell you that's in the hobbyist and photographer demographic. I see numerous jobs where the P4P is specifically asked for by the customer, it's basically the "go to" for photogrammetry and mapping, to entrench this they released a P4P RTK in November with enhanced GPS for mapping. I've never had a customer specify a Mavic 2 Pro, not once. Of course my company doesn't do real estate or pretty pictures.
No, logically it all points to the fact that originally at least DJI intended the P4P v2.0 to go until at least mid 2019 and something has gone off the rails ... The above two points are the only things I can think of without starting to look for "shooters on the grassy Knoll" as I'm not the conspiracy kind of guy I'll leave that be for now.
and all the above may be total B/S and maybe I should shut up and stop speculating too
Regards
Ari
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This thread is a waste of space and bandwidth. No "guy from DJI" is telling anyone anything.
DJI does as good a job as anyone keeping secrets regarding their business.
There will not be another Phantom. The guy from DJI (a janitor?) says they don't sell. He overheard two executives talking to one another through the bathroom stalls I think.
My connection, a guy who did a YouTube video once, says there will be another Phantom, and it will be the greatest drone ever made.
DJI does as good a job as anyone keeping secrets regarding their business.
There will not be another Phantom. The guy from DJI (a janitor?) says they don't sell. He overheard two executives talking to one another through the bathroom stalls I think.
My connection, a guy who did a YouTube video once, says there will be another Phantom, and it will be the greatest drone ever made.
You're totally right, why they're as good at keeping their corporate secrets as, oh say apple is ....... oh wait, every product release they've done in the last 3 years has been leaked with an accuracy of better than 80% ahead of time and often accompanied by pictures.. sorry, forget I said anything, silly me.
C'mon James, lighten up. I admit straight up I am speculating every time I comment and the people who DO know are (most likely) not going to tell. Yes, you are right, there are a small group who claim to be "in the know" somehow and they''re just ego tripping time wasters for the most part, we all know that.
Considering some of the total trash you see on the various forums I don't see a few guys wanting to debate the "what if's" is that criminal a waste of space and bandwidth however.
No disrespect is intended towards you what so ever, I get a bit exasperated myself at times so I understand your frustration but, what's that Americanism again? Oh yeah, "We're just guys shooting the s***" right? What's the harm?
Regards
Ari
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I like these Pilot channels because the level of unconstructive negativity is low. But it still exists and I do not know why. What would drive some people to jump on a harmless conjecture and have a go at someone for speculation based on some simple facts and a reasonable argument. I only said a DJI employer had told me the Phantom line production has been halted, because sales had plummeted. That is all he said to me. I then thought would it not be the perfect time for DJI to release a drone that is better than a P4P2 but not as an expensive and as cumbersome as an Inspire. I believe there is a massive market there. A drone with a very good zoom (more than a x2 or x4) that is even more portable than a P4P. The price would need to be between the two but affordable to those who could afford a P4P. I am sure most reading this would love such a drone whether you are a hobbyist with a passion and a bit of cash or a pro who can deploy a quality drone with ease and speed. Practicing good netiquette is good not just for others but for you. Let's make Piolets a more inviting place that it already is.
Meta4
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[QUOTE="John Gowland, post: 1425493, member: 94610"I only said a DJI employee had told me the Phantom line production has been halted, because sales had plummeted. [/QUOTE]
You or your source got that backwards.
Production was halted which caused sales to diminish.
It's very hard to sell something when you've been out of stock for more than three months.
You or your source got that backwards.
Production was halted which caused sales to diminish.
It's very hard to sell something when you've been out of stock for more than three months.
You may well be right Meta4, I don't know or have any insight more than anyone else. Could it be that they are not producing them because they were not selling as well as expected? I don't' know. Scandal, new year, someone knows.
The fact that the Mavic series is still alive and well, as well as other DJI offerings suggests to me that the recent internal issues with DJI have very little or nothing to do with the disappearance of the Phantom line. Every model of phantom has it quirks and the P4 was certainly no exception. Looking at it strictly from a business perspective, my guess is DJI is, firstly, taking care of internal issues, and secondly, once their supply issues have been sorted out, will decide on what model (new or existing) to bring to us next. I think that will be based on many variables, consumer demand and wants/needs, balanced by what is proven and what new things can be brought to the table. I'm not counting DJI out of the game by any stretch of the imagination. New laws, new tech, new issues (like Gatwick) have changed the game. I think they are just in pause mode for now and reevaluating whats the wisest way to move forward from here.
My prediction is that DJI will release a new Phantom at some point. With 2 varieties, hobbyist and commercial versions. Both will be fully safety certified in any country, equipped with the latest tech, including OAS, VPS, GPS, and more importantly, the ability to be tracked and overridden and controlled by authorities in the event of malicious operations by the pilot. Imo this will be a "must" for any manufacturer in the very near future. I look forward to my next purchase
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I hear what you are saying John, I wasn't thinking of you when I was commenting on the ego trippers who claim to "be in the know", more like a few of the YouTube commentators.
In the end I am in pretty well the same boat as you. I don't have any friends that are direct DJI employees per se but as I said I'm pretty well in with the local authorised dealer and what is important is he's also an authorised service agent, they may not get outright statements from DJI as to what is happening as far as their upcoming lineup structure but they are notified well in advance of any new service regimes, techniques, equipment or parts they may need in the next short time frame, say 1/4 ahead.
He and I agree that making predictions is more about what DJI don't say then about what they do say. He showed me the infamous dealer release notes that we've seen leaked on the web about which models where being discontinued, I confirm the leaks match the actual document but the P4P v2.0 is conspicuously not on the list, the only P4 series not there.
At the same time the said service agent has received nothing to prepare him for the imminent release of a new bird (in that class anyway).
DJI themselves have up to this point not put in writing that the V2.0 is EOL despite what some retailers are saying. Let's face it, how many times have we been into a shop looking for something to be told "Oh they don't make that anymore but I can sell you X instead". Then next week you see the item you were looking for magically back in stock or still being stocked elsewhere. The major chains will tell you whatever they need to to sell you what they have on hand right NOW.
That is all I know with any degree of certainty, anything else I've put forward I've been careful to highlight is just logical speculation and "joining the dots" and I think that's all any of us are doing really. (and enjoying having a gentlemanly conversation about it
)Regards
Ari
I think you are spot on the money Meta4.
Sales have gone through the floor because they just have very few if any to sell. As to why? Well we've seen any number of plausible theories here.
I still tend to think it's a part shortage engendered by something that has occurred within DJI rather than the supplier. It's stands to reason they would have had huge stockpiles of components for the Mavic 2 series ready for the inrush of sales on release. They probably have enough to go on producing them for a long time yet. The Phantom line however being older and less in demand they probably had less on hand for and the timing of the "fraud issue" made for a perfect storm perhaps.
You'll notice I don't make too many comments about what I personally think is going to happen, I just chew over what others have said and make a few observations but if you wanted to pin me down as to my "opinion" and that's all it is ..
I think we'll see the Phantom appear again in some form in the medium term, in terms of likely hood I'd say the V2.0 will appear again in limited numbers, followed by the possibility of an Enterprise version and the smallest likely hood being a P5 (at least in the first three quarters of this year)
The why is simple, The Mavic 2 is without doubt the most popular consumer R.P.A. available now and rightly so, Gorgeously hued photographs requiring little or no post to look great, compact and portable, good quality, price point not too outrageous and that top end consumer market make up the bulk of sales.... but
In some situations, mostly commercial the camera comes in a clear second to the Phantom 4 with i'ts mechanical shutter, 60 fps 4K video and no controversy regarding how or if the sensor is sampled. Argue till the cows come home, when it comes to out and out sharpness at high resolution the P4P is still "the shiz" and commercial customers know this. To go better than a P4P for mapping or Photogrammetry I have to use the Inspire 2 or a Matrice series and then upgrade to another multi thousand dollar camera on top .. in Australian dollars that $10 000 plus .. it's easy to see why the P4P is so loved and although it is easily overlooked in the Mavic 2 world it has a reputation that still casts a long shadow.
So, yeah unless they change out the camera on the Mavic 2 I think a Phantom of some sort will re appear. It's never going to sell anything like as well as the Mavic 2 series for hobbyists but at a prosumer level it has enough demand that DJI will still at this point recognise and respond to that. Sales wise it will never be "top dog" again but it's like the old DC3 or F-111 ardvark .. it may be old but in some applications there's nothing that works better at the price point or anything close to it.
Regards
Ari
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I don't know anyone that is anywhere near DJI, and I'm clearly talking out of my a$$, but to me it makes sense. In order to sell the new Mavic 2 Pro at $1499 USD, they can't have the Phantom at the same price range. So business wise, I would remove the Phantom out of market to move my Mavic 2s. If the next Phantom does come out, it probably will be in a more expensive bracket than the P4Ps.
Well, the more of us the merrier XD
This would be true were they direct competitors for the same niche, It might have appeared that way at first but I don't see this as being the case anymore. The Mavic 2 is going to remain the premier consumer R.P.A. regardless of what happens on the Phantom front.
The Phantom doesn't take as pretty a pictures (without some post production), it's not as portable, but is far better geared for low end commercial operations and will continue to sell in modest number on this basis alone.
While there is obviously some overlap, I have both (and others) but if I could only have one it wouldn't be the Mavic 2. The two are sufficiently different that I see them as being complimentary rather than competitors which I suspect was DJI's original intention otherwise the Mavic 2 Pro would have gotten a mechanical shutter and different color profiles.
I am 100% sure you are correct, and if the rumoured (or hoped for) upgrades such as interchangeable payloads, retractable gear and the rest of the wish list are in there we're going to look at double the price ... which will still leave us short of a low end commercial drone. I trialed both the M2E and M2Dual and went right back to the Phantom, sorry close but no banana. I may end up buying a P4P RTK though ..
Regards
Ari
I agree Ari. In my original post I suggested "I would pay about 6-7,000 if I sold my other drones and put a bit more in."
Thats AU or 5,000 USD.
So, a basic Inspire 2 ready to fly is about 10,000AU, a Phantom 5 (let's call it the Phantom Menace although perhaps not with Gatwick in mind) combo with a few extra batteries could be about 6,500 AU.
It hits the sweet spot between hobbyists like myself, and pros who want to get their work done with less hassle. It would be a stretch for me, but I would do it and DJI know I and many others would do it. That is a big market which is expandable now you have whetted the appetite of all those who have bought into the Mavic 2.
Perhaps I'm talking out of my a$$, but it's what I have daydreams about. Now I want it to be Black and Red.
It's all down to how much can DJI make now and in the future. And I think now is that time, or very soon.
As I said, its at least a good bit of entertainment.
Thats AU or 5,000 USD.
So, a basic Inspire 2 ready to fly is about 10,000AU, a Phantom 5 (let's call it the Phantom Menace although perhaps not with Gatwick in mind) combo with a few extra batteries could be about 6,500 AU.
It hits the sweet spot between hobbyists like myself, and pros who want to get their work done with less hassle. It would be a stretch for me, but I would do it and DJI know I and many others would do it. That is a big market which is expandable now you have whetted the appetite of all those who have bought into the Mavic 2.
Perhaps I'm talking out of my a$$, but it's what I have daydreams about. Now I want it to be Black and Red.
It's all down to how much can DJI make now and in the future. And I think now is that time, or very soon.
As I said, its at least a good bit of entertainment.
I think that's a pretty realistic price estimate to be looking at considering what the M2E retails at here.
Yes, but what a lot of people miss (as Far as we in Australia go) is the Inspire series is a questionable upgrade. They're not the most stable platform in the world, the P4 and the Mavic 2 both fly better in my opinion. The stock camera needs upgrading to give a clear advantage over the P4P and the big killer, If like me you want your Remote Operators certifcate (ReOC) to allow excluded operations, even the most basic exception (flying closer than 30m to people) has a C.A.S.A. recommended requirement of BOTH battery and engine redundancy ... well the Inspire is still a quad. Lose an engine and down it goes. So suddenly for a ReOC the jump is not from P4P to Inspire but from P4P to Matrice 600 series ... I can buy 6 P4P's for one Matrice with a good camera which would be close to $AU15000 in that config .. Also for aerial mapping or photogrammetry the P4P has about twice the flight time of an Inspire per battery with battery replacement costs being double for an Inspire ... this all adds up to the Inspire is a far less profitable platform commercially without even touching on the maintenance regime.
The main use of an Inspire to me is to take it out the job and impress the customer on all the "professional" gear I have and then say to them "You know, I can do this job quicker and at a lower price for you with the smaller aircraft" and then break out the Phantom
You might find this hard to believe John but it would be a stretch for me and most small R.P.A. businesses in Australia as well. Because of the relative youth of the industry there are really very few large established R.P.A. companies that wouldn't blink at the doubling of price of their bread and butter machine when generally we need to buy more than one.
Most operators are like me, still somewhere in the startup stage, after the cost of getting the RePL, the extra couple of thousand for the ReOC then add business establishment costs, buying the aircraft, I currently have seven and will need more, the insurance (let's not forget the insurance! They sure don't forget you!) the $160 per year per aircraft C.A.S.A. now want to hit me to register my aircraft and the $AU7000 per computer costs to do my own image processing and so much more that I can't even remember it all without breaking out the expenditure receipts and I don''t feel like crying this morning.... If I see any return over outlay before the end of 2021 I'll be surprised. As I came out retirement to startup the company only to employ my kids it was a hard push to finance. Suffice to say for the now at least I'd rather see the P4 live on in some form with perhaps some modest price increases than pay double for a "Phantom Menace" (I liked that by the way).
in the end though, I'd like what I'd like but I'll get what they give me.
Regards
Ari
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